DISTORTED TIME AND THE CERTAINTY TRAP

The desire for instant certainties is natural in volatile times. But distorted time is not on our side.

Websites, including this one, frequently warn against the use conditional words like ‘might’ or ‘could’, which can undermine search-engine rankings. Google loves a bald assertion.

It is tempting to join the fun but in uncertain times ‘might’ is right.

Urged on by social media, our own social bubbles and the prevailing mood of society, every decision maker is in danger of falling into a Certainty Trap. Given the volatility of the business environment and the accelerating timetable of work, it is not surprising that we reach for the comfort of received wisdom and the consensus of our social bubbles.

But a period of change requires us to examine our ideas and approaches. It is easy to miss the essential dimension for all creative industry strategy and policy: time.

CHALLENGE

The Creative Sector has a systemic time problem. The overwhelming majority of businesses work project to project. Each project comprises intense periods of time-bound specialised activity.

Of course, such creative tension has helped create great art and inspire adaptation and improvisation.

But research suggests there is a tipping point where time pressure is a destructive, rather than creative force. The Harvard Business School conducted research showing how ‘time famine’ and over-stressed deadlines can actually undermine originality and creative thinking.

Growing time pressures across the creative sector have become a serious issue contributing to business failure, low retention and a mental health crisis.

Diverse talent, skills, viable business models, originality and risk are all getting lost, sucked into this time vortex.

Bigger businesses also have to worry about another temporal factor: quarterly reports. That too has become more problematic: Market volatility and real-time data analytics has created what financial services giant Charles Schwab calls the “Temperamental Era.”

Business stress unfortunately is also reflected at the analysis and policy level, which ought to offer longer term sustainable strategic thinking outside day-to-day industrial constraints.

Universities have created a ‘publish or perish’ culture among academics that undermines research and original thought.

And policy has its own political timeframe. Increasingly, policy is driven by the short-term need for measurable returns on investment in the creative sector. The desire for jobs numbers and GDP contributions – particularly from hosting major US productions – has pushed film policy towards tax breaks and economic incentives.

That drive has arguably come at the expense of a meaningful diverse cultural strategy.

Political time has been shifting in recent years with mounting instability.

The UK, for example, is about to have its eighth Prime Minister in 10 years, and its 11th Culture Minister.

CONTEXT

Time then is often the missing dimension in strategic planning and change management.

Time pressures have unquestionably increased across the Creative Sector. The cost and availability of skills, space and materials squeezes production timelines. And in an overcrowded market, content is expected to achieve at unprecedented speeds.

The opening cinema weekend for a theatrical film, for example, has become more important than ever. The advantages are with productions backed by streaming giants and powerful algorithms but even there TV series cancellations have increased.

The post-Covid creative environment had not settled into a clear pattern, even before the arrival of AI, which may proved the most disruptive force in the history of the Creative Sector.

The timeline for AI and its future impact is far from clear, even to its own pioneers. The loudest voices are often the ones with the biggest stake in success.

Yet, consultants and analysts find themselves under pressure to offer immediate conclusions. They are employed by businesses and organisations that themselves may have fallen into the ‘Certainty Trap‘ – demanding conclusive answers.

The understandable desire for hard truths can lead to the selection of ‘experts’ who can indulge in ‘Confirmation Bias‘ or pander to ‘Sunk Cost Fallacies.’

Finding data to back up any hypothesis is not difficult, particularly with the help of Chat GPT, Claude, et al.

CONSEQUENCES

Confirmation Bias is a pervasive habit. Huge amounts of effort go into planning Creative Sector initiatives. When measurable benefits are delivered in the short term, the motivations for change are limited.

The kind of agile, adaptive approach needed for navigating periods of disruption require constant – and sometimes exhausting – evaluation. Affirmation from the rarified social circles at the successful end of creative industries is more appealing.

Consensus though is almost always time bound, and during periods of rapid change, received wisdom can be dangerous.

Destructive change may not come as a single event, like the 2008 economic crash, or Covid (though it might if AI really is a global-scale bubble).

Already there are economic, social and technological trends that will at least affect the value of today’s creative economy – tariffs, mergers, acquisitions and contracting demand from the major streamers, cost of living depression of audience demand, social divisions, etc.

Creative Sector timelines have changed. The consequence of faster moving times is that decisions do need to be taken more quickly. Some overused cliches are nonetheless prescient today: there really are dangers in ‘analysis paralysis’ and in ‘making perfect the enemy of the good.’

An older cliche still though is more helpful: What we need is “more haste, less speed.”

It is essential not to skip over the crucial stages of self-reflection, sense checking and scenario planning.

When done as part of a systematic methodology, those early stages can help clarify, empower and, yes, hasten effective planning.

Rethink Creative has been developing that methodology. Our approach began with the same mentality of examining our own attitudes, testing design ideas with clients and experts, and prototyping workshops, Prompt Cards and other initiatives.

Our approach is designed to maximise the value of AI across the sector.

Our work ultimately saves time, creating more space to for effective creativity.

If you want to know more, CONTACT US